The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

We explain the currency carry trade performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime-dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean-reverting in regimes of high FX volatility. The findings are robust to various extensions, including more currencies, longer samples, transaction costs, international stock indices, and other proxies for volatility and liquidity. Our regime-dependent pricing model provides significantly smaller pricing errors than a traditional model. Thus, the carry trade performance is better explained by its time-varying systematic risk that magnifies in volatile markets-suggesting a partial explanation for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity puzzle.carry trade, factor model, FX volatility, liquidity, smooth transition regression, time-varying betas

The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

This paper suggests a factor model for carry trade strategies where the regression coefficients are allowed to depend on market volatility and liquidity. Empirical results on daily data from 1995 to 2008 show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and also more mean reversion in volatile periods - and that FX market volatility is a priced risk factor. The findings are robust to various extensions, including using more currencies and other proxies for volatility and liquidity (VIX, TED and a bid-ask spread).carry trade, factor model, smooth transition regression, time-varying betas

Book Review: Wildflowers and Other Plants of Iowa Wetlands

Wildflowers and Other Plants of Iowa Wetlands. Sylvan T. Runkeland Dean M. Roosa. 1999. Iowa State University Press. 372 pages. ISBN 0-8138-2174-6 pbk. Runkel and Roosa have scored again with an impressive book on the plants of Iowa wetlands. The format is similar to their very successful Wildflowers of the Tallgrass Prairie (ISU Press, 1989) with full-page color illustrations of each species with the facing page giving nomenclatural data, range and habitat, leaf, flower and fruit characteristics. Information and interesting facts about the plant, including uses by aborigines and early settlers, follows

Orchestrating Public Opinion

Orchestrating Public Opinion for the first time examines in detail music's persuasive role in political ads for US presidential campaigns. Studies on political ads tend to consider music something of an afterthought, innocuous accompaniment for a narrator. In this book Christiansen takes an opposing view, arguing that music is crucial to an ad's construction. In some cases, it is even determinative: that is, all other elements-images, voiceover, sound effects, written text, and so on-can be circumscribed by and interpreted in relation to music. This book presents for the first time correspondence between campaign officials and ad agencies, storyboards, and music scores related to ads such as Eisenhower's "I Like Ike" or Reagan's "Morning in America." Engaging music seriously through detailed musical analysis as well as exploring music's relation to visual and textual elements in ads, Orchestrating brings together disparate approaches toward understanding the surreptitious rhetoric of music

In Memoriam: Larry Eilers

Larry came to botany along an unusual route. His first college degree was in engineering. After a stint at secondary teaching Larry worked at Collins Radio in Cedar Rapids, then returned to UNI (SCI then) and took a master\u27s degree in biology, He continued his study at the University of Iowa under Dr. Robert Thorne and took his Ph.D. in 1964. He did the flora of the Iowan Surface (the Iowan Drift in those days). He taught at Syracuse University and University of Indiana at Terra Haute before joining the faculty of the University of Northern Iowa

Orchestrating Public Opinion

Orchestrating Public Opinion for the first time examines in detail music's persuasive role in political ads for US presidential campaigns. Studies on political ads tend to consider music something of an afterthought, innocuous accompaniment for a narrator. In this book Christiansen takes an opposing view, arguing that music is crucial to an ad's construction. In some cases, it is even determinative: that is, all other elements-images, voiceover, sound effects, written text, and so on-can be circumscribed by and interpreted in relation to music. This book presents for the first time correspondence between campaign officials and ad agencies, storyboards, and music scores related to ads such as Eisenhower's "I Like Ike" or Reagan's "Morning in America." Engaging music seriously through detailed musical analysis as well as exploring music's relation to visual and textual elements in ads, Orchestrating brings together disparate approaches toward understanding the surreptitious rhetoric of music

The impact of own and others' alcohol consumption on social contagion following a collaborative memory task

When one person alters their recollection of an event to be consistent with another person's erroneous account of the same event, social contagion has occurred. In two studies, we examined whether alcohol consumption influences the degree to which people engage in social contagion. In Study 1, participants consumed alcohol, an alcohol placebo, or a soft drink and then completed a collaborative recall test with a confederate who consumed a soft drink. In Study 2, participants consumed a soft drink and then completed a collaborative recall test with a confederate they believed had consumed a soft drink or alcohol (but no alcohol was ever consumed). In both studies, the confederate made scripted errors during the collaborative recall test. On post-collaborative individual recall and recognition tests, participants in both studies engaged in social contagion by including the confederate’s errors in their own recollection. In Study 1, the drink participants consumed had no influence on social contagion. In Study 2, participants were less likely to engage in social contagion after collaborating with a confederate who had seemingly consumed alcohol. That same confederate was viewed as less accurate, trustworthy, and credible, which likely made participants less inclined to engage in social contagion

Electrophysiological responses to alcohol cues are not associated with Pavlovian-to-Instrumental Transfer in social drinkers

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Understanding Adolescent Intentions to Smoke: An Examination of Relationships Among Social Influence, Prior Trial Behavior, and Antitobacco Campaign Advertising

Telephone interviews were conducted with more than 900 adolescents aged 12 to 18 as part of a multimillion dollar, statewide, antitobacco advertising campaign. The interviews addressed two primary questions: (1) Do counter-advertising campaign attitudes directly affect antismoking beliefs and intent in a manner similar to those of conventional advertisements? and (2) Can advertising campaign attitudes have a stronger effect on beliefs and intent for adolescents with prior smoking behavior and for adolescents exposed to social influence (i.e., friends, siblings, or adult smoker in the home)? The authors\u27 findings show that advertising campaign attitudes, prior trial behavior, and social influence all directly affect antismoking beliefs and that advertising campaign attitudes interact with prior trial behavior to strengthen antismoking beliefs. The results indicate that attitudes related to the campaign, prior trial behavior, and social influence directly influence intent, and advertising campaign attitudes interact with social influence and prior trial behavior to attenuate adolescent intent to smoke. In addition, the effect of advertising campaign attitudes in attenuating social influence and prior trial behavior effects on adolescent intent to smoke persists even when the authors account for strongly held beliefs about smoking. The authors discuss implications for countermarketing communications and the design and understanding of future antismoking campaigns